Why Tax Reform Failed
There was a lot of post-election analysis of the failed tax reform measure. But few of them touched on what I consider to be the major reason why this - and other - People's Veto succeeded yet again - the role of TV advertising.
The tax reform measure that was passed by the Legislature with almost no Republican support would have lowered Maine's top income tax rate from 8.5% to 6.5%, and paid for it by extending Maine's sales tax to a wide array of products and services that are not currently taxed. There are good reasons for doing this. When I worked in the governor's office, we frequently heard from CEOs who were considering moving their operations to Maine or expanding their business. It was never the corporate taxes they were concerned about, it was the amount of personal income taxes they would pay by moving to Maine that influenced their decision.
That's why the Wall Street Journal called the tax reform measure "the Maine miracle" because it would have created jobs and encouraged growth. So how come that never made its way into a TV ad?
Instead, the proponents of tax reform took the cute route. Their ads featured a woman with a lobster on a leash and said "Mainers know a bad idea when we see one." A similar ad showed a guy attaching a child safety seat to his motorcycle. The first time I saw it I thought it was an ad for a helmet law.
The opponents - those who favored repeal - played it straight. Their ad exploited the public's anger toward Wall Street and the federal government by calling it another government bailout. And they listed a number of taxes that would go up if the measure was not repealed, things like pet services, auto repairs, meals at restaurants - you know, things Maine people care about.
I'm not going to discuss which of the ads were more or less factual (they both stretched the truth), only which was more effective. Tax reform is complicated, and it was made more complicated by these ads which said regardless of how you vote - yes or no - taxes would go up. And it's no laughing matter either. That's why the lobster on a leash approach was dumb. What was needed was a clear, concise explanation of the law and why Maine people should vote for it. The opponents scored by simplifying their message and putting the tax reform advocates on the defensive. As I've said many times, you can't score on defense.
Maybe the Democrats didn't want to use the Wall Street Journal editorial because it also made the case that the tax reform measure was really a tax cut for the wealthy. But who reads the Wall Street Journal? Republicans. And who did the proponents of tax reform need to convince? Republicans. It was a mistake not to throw their bible into their faces.
This was another case of sound, reasonable policy losing due to a poorly executed campaign and an unclear message. It's that simple.
The tax reform measure that was passed by the Legislature with almost no Republican support would have lowered Maine's top income tax rate from 8.5% to 6.5%, and paid for it by extending Maine's sales tax to a wide array of products and services that are not currently taxed. There are good reasons for doing this. When I worked in the governor's office, we frequently heard from CEOs who were considering moving their operations to Maine or expanding their business. It was never the corporate taxes they were concerned about, it was the amount of personal income taxes they would pay by moving to Maine that influenced their decision.
That's why the Wall Street Journal called the tax reform measure "the Maine miracle" because it would have created jobs and encouraged growth. So how come that never made its way into a TV ad?
Instead, the proponents of tax reform took the cute route. Their ads featured a woman with a lobster on a leash and said "Mainers know a bad idea when we see one." A similar ad showed a guy attaching a child safety seat to his motorcycle. The first time I saw it I thought it was an ad for a helmet law.
The opponents - those who favored repeal - played it straight. Their ad exploited the public's anger toward Wall Street and the federal government by calling it another government bailout. And they listed a number of taxes that would go up if the measure was not repealed, things like pet services, auto repairs, meals at restaurants - you know, things Maine people care about.
I'm not going to discuss which of the ads were more or less factual (they both stretched the truth), only which was more effective. Tax reform is complicated, and it was made more complicated by these ads which said regardless of how you vote - yes or no - taxes would go up. And it's no laughing matter either. That's why the lobster on a leash approach was dumb. What was needed was a clear, concise explanation of the law and why Maine people should vote for it. The opponents scored by simplifying their message and putting the tax reform advocates on the defensive. As I've said many times, you can't score on defense.
Maybe the Democrats didn't want to use the Wall Street Journal editorial because it also made the case that the tax reform measure was really a tax cut for the wealthy. But who reads the Wall Street Journal? Republicans. And who did the proponents of tax reform need to convince? Republicans. It was a mistake not to throw their bible into their faces.
This was another case of sound, reasonable policy losing due to a poorly executed campaign and an unclear message. It's that simple.
Posted by Dennis Bailey at 6/28/2010 12:03 PM 
Categories: Maine politics, Maine Politics, government
Tags: Maine politics campaigns Tax reform advertising
Categories: Maine politics, Maine Politics, government
Tags: Maine politics campaigns Tax reform advertising
That was an ideal article. I came across this piece and found it very constructive.
Reply to this
What ever the reason, it was a real tragedy that we couldn't pull it off!
Reply to this