Forget the polls that show Mainers now favor gay marriage. It’s within the margin or error and those numbers will change anyway.

Forget the notion being peddled by supporters that Mainers have changed their minds since the vote in 2009 to repeal the gay marriage law (if they have, they can just as easily change them back once the campaign commercials start). And don’t bet on a strong youth vote in a presidential year (you’ll be disappointed, again).

Supporters of the gay marriage effort expressed a lot of confidence last week when they turned in the petitions for another gay marriage referendum in November. This time will be different, they said. If that overconfidence morphs into complacency than they’re in for an even worse drubbing than the defeat three years ago.

A better strategy would have been to warn the supporters and volunteers that this campaign will take even more work than the last one. It would have been more accurate too. For a variety of reasons, passing a law to give same sex couples the right to marry will be even harder this time. Here’s why:

1. The ballot this time is a straight up or down question, yes for gay marriage, no if you’re against it. It was a bit of a miracle last time that the opponents of gay marriage convinced voters who don’t want gay marriage to cast a yes vote. They overcame the confusion that the repeal vote caused, but I’ll bet a sizable number of opponents actually cast no votes. There won’t be any such confusion this time, and getting people to vote no is always easier. It has a built-in advantage because despite what people claim, they don’t really like change, any kind of change. Change is scary. It’s like convincing a jury, all it takes is a sliver of doubt. So opponents will have an easier time.
2. Referendums generally have an easier time when the governor and a majority of the Legislature favor it. 2009 was an exception though. Gov. Baldacci and the Democratic controlled Legislature were behind it, and it still failed. This time Gov. LePage and most Republicans will be opposed, vocally opposed. And regardless of how you feel about LePage, he still commands respect of his party’s base.
3. Don’t count on a strong Obama vote in Maine to save the gay marriage law. Obama’s approval rating in Maine is the lowest of any state in New England after New Hampshire, below 50%. And anyway, last I checked Obama opposes gay marriage.
4. Likewise, don’t count on a big youth vote in a presidential year. It rarely materializes. It’s true that the younger you are, the more likely you are to support gay marriage, and a lot of young, first-time voters turned out for Obama in 2008. (Doubtful they’ll be so rabid for him this time. The hope and change message only works once.) But in a presidential year, more older people vote too. And the turnout in 2009, an off-year election, was huge, almost as big as a presidential year. The demographics this time out won’t be much different. Anyway, counting on a victory based on who and how many people show up to vote is nearly always a losing strategy.
5. Once people have voted on an issue, they just aren’t very likely to change their minds. They’ve heard all the arguments, they’ve made their decision, and they’ll likely tune out most of the ads a second time around. Why do you think nearly every casino vote since 2003 has failed? People stick with their original decision – unless they’re given some new information, a new wrinkle that they hadn’t considered before.
6. Mitt Romney will be very strong in Maine. He’ll come across as a good-looking, sensible moderate that will appeal to white bread Maine voters. And since Maine is one of the few states that split their Electoral College votes – and Romney will need every one he can get – he can be expected to run a strong campaign here, especially in northern Maine where support for gay marriage is weakest. He’ll be turning out a lot of gay marriage opponents.
7. Gay marriage supporters will likely run the same campaign they did last time, and if they do it will be a huge mistake. There were a lot of comments after the 2009 defeat like, “We ran a great campaign, we did everything right.” No, you lost. Something didn’t work, and you’d better figure out what it was and not repeat it. (My two cents: most of the gay marriage ads preached to the choir, to people already supportive of gay marriage. This time around, give voters who are ambivalent about the issue or have no personal stake in the outcome good reasons to support it. These issues get decided by a very narrow group of undecided voters. Those are the ones to target. Show them how gay marriage will make their life better, not how it will make a gay person's life better. You have their vote. Show how it will bring in new revenue for the state or bring more tourists and jobs. Showcase other states where gay marriage is legal to show that they haven’t descended into Sodom and Gomorrah.)
8. Opponents of gay marriage won’t run the same campaign as last time. They’re smarter than that. Don’t expect to see many of those creepy ads suggesting that schools will be forced to teach gay marriage in the classroom. They helped keep the supporters on the defensive, but they really weren’t all that effective. The ad that was most effective was this one:

   It says Maine’s domestic partnership law already provides most of the benefits of marriage so there’s no reason to dismantle traditional marriage to give gay people the benefits they already have. It essentially relieved people of their guilt for denying gay men and women equal rights, and made the opponents seem tolerant. That’s the button the opponents will likely push, and supporters of gay marriage better have a good response.

The gay marriage law can win this time. But don't kid yourself, it won’t be a cakewalk. In fact, it’s likely to be a tougher, more expensive battle than last time. Get ready.