SavvySpin.Com

Why the gay marriage vote will be harder this time

Dennis Bailey — 2012-02-03T19:46:04Z

Forget the polls that show Mainers now favor gay marriage. It’s within the margin or error and those numbers will change anyway.

Forget the notion being peddled by supporters that Mainers have changed their minds since the vote in 2009 to repeal the gay marriage law (if they have, they can just as easily change them back once the campaign commercials start). And don’t bet on a strong youth vote in a presidential year (you’ll be disappointed, again).

Supporters of the gay marriage effort expressed a lot of confidence last week when they turned in the petitions for another gay marriage referendum in November. This time will be different, they said. If that overconfidence morphs into complacency than they’re in for an even worse drubbing than the defeat three years ago.

A better strategy would have been to warn the supporters and volunteers that this campaign will take even more work than the last one. It would have been more accurate too. For a variety of reasons, passing a law to give same sex couples the right to marry will be even harder than last time. Here’s why:

Why the Casinos Lost

Dennis Bailey — 2011-11-09T17:58:57Z

It was theirs to lose, and they figured out a way to lose it.

The casino promoters hired virtually every political consultant in Maine to get Question 2 passed, and several top consultants in Washington. Millions of dollars, a 6-1 spending advantage over their opponents, weeks of incessant TV ads, kids going door-to-door armed with the latest iPad technology, online ads that would pop up on top sites like MSNBC, direct mail up the wazoo, newspaper ads, a website and Facebook page, robo calls to targeted likely voter households. They used every tool available to them.

And they lost. Big time.

A OneMaine Candidate Addresses the Voters

Dennis Bailey — 2011-10-04T14:55:18Z

Dear Friends,

As the election draws near, I am proud to have the endorsement and financial support of OneMaine, a new political action committee dedicated to finding areas of compromise and common-sense solutions to the most vital issues facing us today.

As members of OneMaine, we reject the tired notion that our elected officials must commit to clearly defined positions and ideals, strive to educate and influence voters, and build coalitions to ultimately pressure our government into action.

No, that’s not leadership. Besides, it's hard work.

Norm Olsen’s – and the Democrats’ – Overreaction

Dennis Bailey — 2011-07-22T14:16:17Z

The sudden and unceremonious resignation this week of the Commissioner of Department of Marine Resources gave the Democrats and the news media a golden opportunity to pig pile on Gov. LePage. He was quickly accused of everything from bad management to sucking up to “special interests.”

But it was a golden opportunity for everyone else to realize that most of these critics have no idea what they’re talking about. All they know, apparently, is how to kick a guy when he’s down to score cheap partisan points.

This is Why Rupert Murdoch Runs an Evil Empire

Dennis Bailey — 2011-07-19T19:01:44Z

I tweeted about this yesterday, but I’m still amazed by this whole episode. If anyone needs proof that Rupert Murdoch runs an evil empire, here it is.

As we all know, Murchoch’s now-defunct News of the World has been accused of gaining access to confidential information, including medical and financial records, from thousands of individuals by hiring private investigators for hacking and “blagging” into mobile phones. The company is also accused of paying bribes to police officers, perhaps to block or delay criminal investigations into the company’s activities, and paying hush money to victims of their activities in the form of out-of-court settlements.

This is a huge story, Britain’s Watergate. But that’s not the proof I’m talking about.

PR Is Dead

Dennis Bailey — 2011-07-13T15:55:55Z

Before I started Savvy, Inc. more than 10 years ago, I spent a lot of time researching the competition and figuring out where a new PR firm would fit into the current market. I was a little surprised to discover that in Maine, there really was no competition. No one was doing the kind of PR that I envisioned.

The reason was that none of the so-called PR professionals in those days had ever been in the news business or worked as a reporter. They had almost no understanding of what makes a real news story, or the needs of the news media.

Shut Up, Al

Dennis Bailey — 2011-05-05T13:07:00Z

Whenever a client complains to me about getting the Al Diamon treatment (and sooner or later everyone gets the Al Diamon treatment – the man respects nothing and no one), I always counsel the same thing: who cares? The man is a joke, a cartoon, an aging, overweight, beer-swilling cynical curmudgeon who hasn’t had a decent political insight in 30 years. He’s good for a few laughs, but does anyone really take him seriously? I mean, just look at him. His wife once confessed to me that even she doesn’t know what he looks like without that ratty Rip Van Winkle beard. I think she also told me the last time he combed it, 25 Rheingold beer caps fell to the floor. (I wonder if she also knows that he’s bald under that baseball hat?)

Here’s why Al’s smart-alecky barbs are so easy to dismiss: he’s an equal opportunity antagonist. If you disagree with the latest acid assessment from his hovel in Carrabassett Valley, don’t worry. There will be another one coming along any minute that you probably will agree with. To Al, everybody and everything is just a punch line.

A Scorcher at the Cape

Dennis Bailey — 2011-04-29T10:46:00Z

It's hot. Really hot. But the enthusiasm of the tweeps awaiting tomorrow's launch is even hotter. Off the scale. This is one fired up group, charged to be here. I'd say that most people here are enjoying their second childhood, but I suspect it's really their third. Or fourth. Or they never really grew up.

It's an eclectic bunch too. Besides the stars like Seth Green and LeVar Burton, there is the guy who does the music for American Idol; a Jeopardy champ; the author of the book "E-Bay for Dummies;" a few astrophysicists; and a healthy contingent from Twitter itself, the company.

Day One in Florida

Dennis Bailey — 2011-04-28T03:13:50Z

I'm down at Cape Canaveral for the big NASA Tweetup. Today was just a travel day, and after arriving in Orlando, I drove to the Cape to pick up my credentials. The gals behind the desk were very excited that my badge number was 007. Yeah, shaken not stirred. It'll be that kind of weekend.

There's a reason why they call this the Space Coast. Everything is themed to the space program. Even a McDonald's I drove by had a big Space Shuttle playground out front, and several of the gas stations and convenience stores displayed signs saying, "Godspeed Endeavour," and "Welcome Gabby Giffords and Friends." It makes you wonder what the place will be like when the Shuttle program comes to and end.

I've never really liked Florida. Flat.

On My Way to the Shuttle Launch...

Dennis Bailey — 2011-04-26T12:57:00Z

This week I'll be traveling to Cape Canaveral to witness the final launch of the Space Shuttle Endeavour. In fact, it may be the final launch for the entire Space Shuttle program if Congress cuts off funding for the next flight tentatively scheduled for June. Either way, I was lucky enough to be selected as one of 150 people to attend NASA's ultimate Tweetup.

The Ultimate Tweetup

Dennis Bailey — 2011-03-25T15:40:00Z

This week I received an official invitation from NASA to attend a Tweetup on April 18-19 to watch the launch of the Space Shuttle Endeavour. The event brings together 150 users of the popular social networking site for a two-day tour of Cape Canaveral in Florida, meetings with NASA astronauts and engineers, and a close-up view of the launch from the press section just a few miles from the pad, the closest you can get without being on the rocket itself.

The final flight of Endeavour (and the penultimate voyage in the Shuttle program) is scheduled to blast off at 7:48 p.m. on Monday, April 19 and will be commanded by Mark Kelly, wife of Arizona Congrsswomen Gabrielle Giffords, who may attend the launch.

Are Wind Power Opponents Winning the PR Battle?

Dennis Bailey — 2011-02-25T15:18:00Z

Everybody wants to love wind power. The idea that a few slowly spinning windmills on the horizon can generate clean, cheap electrical power and free us all from the chaos in the oil-soaked Middle East is an appealing prospect. What’s not to love?

But so far, wind power hasn’t lived up to its many promises. And the growing legion of wind power opponents has not only been successful in pointing out wind power’s significant downside, they now control the debate. I’m willing to bet that more people are familiar with wind power’s negatives – the noise, the shadow flicker, the alleged mountaintop destruction – than its positives. Support is clearly declining. If there’s a strong case to be made for wind power, the proponents haven’t made it yet.

Why Aren't These People in Jail?

Dennis Bailey — 2011-02-11T17:17:00Z

In 2008 when the housing bubble broke and the nation’s economy took a nosedive, many Republicans and conservatives were quick to blame Congress for the problems. They pointed to a 1977 law called the Community Reinvestment Act that encouraged banks to offer mortgages in minority neighborhoods. The CRA – and the Capital Hill Democrats who championed it - became the boogeyman for forcing banks to loan money to unqualified homebuyers. These mostly subprime loans eventually defaulted, resulting in the cataclysmic implosion of the US financial industry, or so their well-publicized claims went.

But last week, in a mostly overlooked report from a bipartisan Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission that examined the causes of the great financial collapse, that myth was finally put to bed.

Conflicts Upon Conflicts at the Maine Legislature

Dennis Bailey — 2011-01-31T14:31:00Z

Darryl Brown wasn't the only public official with a potential conflict of interest at last week's hearing on his nomination as the new commissioner of the Department of Environmental Protection. A member of the committee, who voted in favor of Brown's appointment, had a similar quandary.

Democrats who opposed Brown's nomination did so mostly out of concern that he would face a conflict of interest as commissioner since the land use planning company he owns, Main-Land Development Consultants, Inc., frequently seeks permits on behalf of clients from the DEP. Brown said he plans to sell his interest in the company - or most of it - to avoid any possible conflict, but the sale may take some time.

But a member of the Environment and Natural Resources committee that considered Brown's appointment, Rep. James Parker, a Republican who represents Veazie and parts of Bangor and Orono, has connections to a similar company.

Scott Thistle: Worst. Reporter. Ever.

Dennis Bailey — 2011-01-25T13:52:00Z

The Lewiston Sun Journal today continues its hysterical, over-the-top and inaccurate coverage of The Cutler Files controversy. The lengthy article reports on a memo by the state's Ethics Commission that has found me in violation of state campaign disclosure laws and recommends a $200 fine.

There's absolutely nothing in the story that hasn't been previously reported. Nevertheless, the story gets Page 1 treatment, bumping such stories as LePage's announcement of all the environmental regulations he wants to bury to the inside. But that's what's great about the Sun Journal: you never know on what page you'll see a front page story.

Newspaper, thy death is near

Dennis Bailey — 2011-01-21T15:12:00Z

Within the next few weeks, Apple and media giant Rupert Murdoch are expected to unveil an iPad-only daily news magazine app that, if successful, will eventually spell the end of dead-tree journalism. The Apple/Murdoch marriage has the potential of doing for newspapers (the print version) what iTunes has done to CDs, and Netflix streaming is doing for DVDs - making them virtually obsolete.

Within a relatively short time, nearly every daily newspaper will mostly abandon their print editions in favor of web-based or app-based news delivery. You'll still be able to get the print edition. But they'll be viewed like vinyl record albums - admired by purists who'll pay a premium to possess them. And home delivery will be a quaint memory of a simpler era, like the milkman. Everyone else will be be jacked in to their iPad or other tablet to get their news.

The LePage Memo: No Big Deal

Dennis Bailey — 2011-01-13T15:11:00Z

Today's news that the LePage Administration has asked its department heads to clear policy initiatives and press contacts with the governor's office is a big non-issue. And if Maine's news media had any institutional memory, they'd know that it was standard practice for most incoming administrations.

Every Administration wants to speak with one voice. They want to know in advance if a department head is launching some initiative that will make the phones ring at the governor's office. And they want to know what commissioners and bureau chiefs are saying to the press before they see it in the paper. Sounds like good management to me..

But today's stories contain the predictable outcries from LePage opponents that the new governor is restricting access to public information. The Sun Journal story even raises the notion that he's placed a "gag order" on his commissioners. Look for editorials in the next few days condemning LePage for lack of openness.

But we've been down this road before.

Toxic Rhetoric, Tragic Shooting

Dennis Bailey — 2011-01-11T15:20:00Z

We're never really going to be able to draw a direct line of blame between the toxic, inflamed anti-government rhetoric that characterizes today's political discourse to the tragic shooting rampage that took place in Arizona on Saturday, as much as many people would like. By all accounts the shooter was a lone nut who could have been set off by almost anything, and just happened to focus his ire on Congresswoman Gabby Gifford.

However, did anyone not think that, given today's scorched earth political discourse on talk radio and other outlets, that something like this was eventually going to happen?

Bank of America Preps for a Crisis That May Not Happen

Dennis Bailey — 2011-01-04T13:43:00Z

The best time to deal with a crisis is when there isn't one. That's apparently what Bank of America is doing. A recent New York Times story revealed that BofA executives are in a near panic preparing for a possible data dump by WikiLeaks. The group's enigmatic spokesman Julian Assange has said in interviews that he has an entire hard drive of information from an executive of a leading financial institution, which could be his next target.

There's no confirmation that the target is Bank of America. Still, BofA brass are taking proactive steps to prepare for the worst. And they should. No business, especially one as big as BofA, should be without a plan to deal with a crisis, even when it's unclear what the crisis is.

Out from the Shadows: The Cutler Files and Me

Dennis Bailey — 2010-12-23T21:42:00Z

I’m one of the creators of The Cutler Files.

It was a short-lived website launched with all the best intentions that sort of backfired.

The idea was to set the record straight and tell the truth about a candidate for governor who we believed was fudging his record, misleading the voters and being less than candid about his past – character traits that should have attracted intense scrutiny by the mainstream news media.

But for some reason, Eliot Cutler – unlike other candidates in the race for Maine governor – was getting a free pass. His statements were unchallenged, the tough questions were never asked and the blanks in his resume remained unfilled.

So, The Cutler Files, we believed, would provide voters with the facts and help sketch in the details that newspaper and television profiles were leaving out.

Trouble is, the news media ignored the substance of The Cutler Files – I doubt many reporters even read it – and instead focused on a who-done-it search to uncover the identities of the website’s anonymous authors. The authors of the website were vilified, the candidate played the victim and freedom of speech took a major hit from which it may not recover.

So, by popular demand, here’s the full story of The Cutler Files, a $90 website that became front page news and, at least according to some reports, was a key factor in the defeat of Cutler’s $2.6 million campaign for governor.